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Asian Economies Not as Vulnerable as Before
A. Central bank governors from the Asia-Pacific region, at a recent meeting warned that the global trade environment is much tougher for their countries now than during the Asian crisis of four years ago. Singapore is in recession, and South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines have sharply slowing growth. The only bright spot is China, which has maintained brisk output growth because stronger investment and household spending have more than offset the regional export slowdown.
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B. However, a new financial crisis does not seem to be looming for the region, as some remarkable changes have taken place over the past four years. These changes mean that the region's economies are likely to experience slower but still positive growth this year, and stronger growth next year. The first change is that the economies of Korea, Thailand the Indonesia can no longer be broken by a stampede of foreign bank lenders. The hot money has already gone. According to the most recent International Monetary Fund statistics, net international bank claims in East Asia have fallen by US$354 billion over the last four years. Loans have been repaid by stronger flows of foreign direct investment, by lending from international institutions and by the reemergence of a bond market in the first half of last year, as well as through large trade surpluses resulting from imports growing more slowly than exports. In the four years from 1997 to 2000, these economies accumulated current account surpluses of US$239 billion, compared to a cumulative deficit of US$88 billion during the five years from 1992.
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C. Large current account surpluses have seen not only foreign debt reduced, but also big reserves accumulated. These reserves are seen as a cushion against future financial shocks. The reserves in Southeast Asia have increased by US$214 billion in recent years. The central banks of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan hold most of this sum. Moreover, the central banks of the region have agreed on swap arrangements, which could allow the reserves for one currency to be used in the defense of another in case of the threat of another Asian financial crisis. As noted by a report prepared by the regional central banks, intervention is most effective when coordinated.
D. These changes defend against a stampede and contagion, but do not, in themselves, encourage growth. That depends on the regional shift toward more flexible exchange rates. Although far form floating freely, most regional exchange rates are no longer hostage to unhedged US dollar bank debt or to entrenched convictions that exchange rate stability is essential. Managed floats have been adopted in most regional economies. Responding to the stronger US dollar, falling exports and slowing imports, these exchange rates have been depreciating. For example, the Singapore dollar recently reached a ten-year low, while the Taiwan dollar reached a 15-year slow.
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E Foreign direct investment is slowing, and exports are tumbling, but with room to expand domestic demand there are good reasons to think that the region will get through the most serious global downturn in a decade. Foreign investment flows and domestic reconstruction will maintain China's growth. Even South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan—all highly dependent on technology exports to the US—are now buttressed by trade surpluses, huge reserves and flexible exchange rates. All these factors are favorable for expanding domestic demand.
Questions 1-4
This passage has six paragraphs A—F. Choose the most suitable headings for paragraphs B—E from the list of headings below. Write the appropriate numbers (i—ix) on the ANSWER SHEET.
NB There are more headings than paragraphs, so you will not use them all.
List of Headings
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i. Disappearance of hot money
ii. Changes in the region's economies
iii. The role of the US dollar
iv. The region's weak spots
v. The importance of currency reserves
vi. Swap arrangements
vii. The need for flexible exchange rates
viii. Expanding domestic demand
ix. The Philippines' economic problems
1. Paragraph B
2. Paragraph C
3. Paragraph D
4. Paragraph E
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Questions 5-8
Using NO MORE THAN THREE WORDS from the passage, answer the following questions. Write your answers on the ANSWER SHEET.
5. Who is cooperating to stave off another Asian financial crisis?
6. According to the author, what do the changes in the region's economies NOT do?
7. Which country is an exception to the region's slow economic growth?
8. When was the last most serious worldwide economic slowdown?
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Questions 9-12
Do the following statements agree with the information in this passage? Write on the ANSWER SHEET
YES if the statement agrees with the information
NO if the statement contradicts the information
NOT GIVEN if there is no information on this in the passage
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9. The changes in the region's economies will accelerate their growth.
10. Pegged exchange rates are a danger to Thailand and Malaysia.
11. Most of the regional economies allow their exchange rates to float freely.
12. To survive the global economic slump, the region must export more than it imports.
