Ⅰ. Translate the following paragraphs into Chinese (40 marks)
The recovery of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has been so spectacular that it is creating a new set of risks for financial markets. The great risks are now facing the US economy center on monetary policy and the oil market. The current federal funds interest rate of only 1.75 percent has clearly become unsustainable in view of the economy’s resilience. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 0.25 percentage points during the second quarter and could increase short-term interest rates or at least 3 percent before the autumn to the level they were at before last year.
今年第一季度美国经济如此壮观的复苏，正给金融市场带成一系列新的风险。目前美国经济面临的这些巨大的风险集中来自于货币政策和石油市场。从经济恢复力来看，目前只有1.75%的联邦利率已明显无法持续。美联储决定将在第二季度提升利率至少0.25个百分点，并会在秋季前将短期利率提升至3％以上——这也是美国在前年的利率水平。
Such tightening would probably cause refinancing to slump to about $300 billion at annual rates late this year, which would eliminate residential capital gains as a prop for consumer-spending. Rising interest rates could also damp the rally likely to occur in the equity market as corporate profits recover. If investment spending fails to recover, the economy’s annual growth rate could slide back to the 2-3 percent.
这样的紧缩政策可能会导致今年年底再融资水平跌至3亿／年，这将使住宅投资收益在消费性支出中的支柱作用荡然无存。利率的提高也将抑制企业利润好转下股票市场的回升。如果投资支出没能复原，整个经济的年增长率将回落至2％～3％。
The oil price is also a big risk, mainly because the US administration appears determined to attack Iran. The probability of war could easily push the oil price back into the $100-$110 a barrel range for at least a few months. In effect, that would impose a big new tax on consumer spending and corporate profits. The prospect of monetary tightening and a sharp increase in the oil price suggests that late 2013 and early 2014 could be a period of great volatility for the US economy.
石油价格也是一大风险，这主要是因为美国政府表现出来的攻打伊朗的坚决态度。战争的可能性可以轻而易举地将油价推回到100—110美元一桶，而且这一持续就会是至少几个月，结果将是在消费性支出和企业利润头上新加了一大笔税赋。货币紧缩政策与油价急剧攀升的前景暗示着2013年底和2014年初可能是美国经济的一大波动期。
Ⅱ. Translate the following paragraph into English (20 marks)
20世纪90年代以来，经济全球化迅速发展并日益成为世界经济发展的新趋势。虽然经济全球化促进了世界各国的生产、贸易和投资，但是发展中国家与发达国家之间的经济差距不但没有缩小，反而进一步扩大了。因此，对发展中国家 1 / 3
而言，经济全球化既是机遇，又是挑战。发展中国家应当调整发展战略，加快改革开放进程，以实现经济的快速增长与发展。
Since the 1990s, economic globalization is developing rapidly and has become the new trend of the world economic development. While economic globalization promotes the production, trade and investment in the world, but the economic gap between developing and developed countries has not been reduced, on the contrary, further expansion. Therefore, for developing countries, economic globalization is not only an opportunity, but also a challenge. Developing countries should adjust development strategy, speed up the process of Reform and Opening-up , in order to achieve rapid economic growth and development.
Ⅲ. Writing ( 500 ~ 550 words ) ( 40 marks )
Explain how to realize the transformation of China's economic development mode in the near future.
After developing rapidly for over 30 years, China’s economy find itself difficult to support its future growth with the original extensive growth mode marked by substantial input of production factors and export-driven growth pattern. To realize the transformation of China's economic development mode in the near future, China should focus on the following 3 aspects:
To solve the dislocation problem of governments at all levels in economic activities
China is still in the stage of economic transition, in which many government departments have huge resource allocation rights. With the current tax system and official assessment index system and promotion system, local government officials have strong intentions to intervene the economy, which gives rise to local government officials to pursue short-term economic growth performance and despise long-term development potential, to pursue local interests and ignore overall interests, to pursue GDP growth and ignore environmental quality and other social development indicators, and to pursue model project and despise the livelihood of the people. Therefore, China should carry out reform in tax system and official performance assessment system to overcome the distorted phenomenon of local government’s behaviors and to make local governments the maker of systems and regulations to overcome the problem of incomplete market system, the server of micro-economic main bodies, the provider of public goods, the pusher of education, innovation and environment protection, and the regulator of social distribution.
2．To improve the science and technology innovation system and to promote the reform of education and scientific research departments
The key to transform the mode of economic development is to depend on scientific and technological developments for economic growth. Because science and technology is long-lasting and highly risky with strong economic externalities, Chinese government should both consider the effective results of economic externalities and protect the interests of innovators to construct the institutional environment for innovation encouragement. Meanwhile, it should make
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breakthroughs from the aspect of education system to solve the problem of lack of innovation talents.
3. Pay attention to the effective use of natural resources and environmental protection
China’s current industrial structure is highly resource consuming. The resource constraints problem that China faces in it economic development has revealed. To solve the bottleneck problem of the natural resource constraints, China should optimize its industrial structure on one hand and make breakthroughs in production technology that is environmental friendly and energy saving in new energy development.