As the Singapore corporate bond market is relatively new,these few names comprise most of the bonds currently in issue. As the market develops, investors will be offered a wider choice of risk/return combinations. This has been demonstrated in the US where a non-investment grade segment of the corporate bond market has developed, offering investors riskier corporate bond investments at much higheryields. 　 The corporate bond market in Singapore is likely to develop in both the variety of stock available and the liquidity of the secondary market. The development is expected to be strongly demand-driven, with diversified investors increasingly looking to the corporate bond market for yield. Although corporate bonds carry more risk than government bonds, that risk can be controlled to a large extent by credit analysis and other checks on the is-suer and the terms of the bond. In return investors have the opportunity to achieve a good cash income. (The writer is Managing Director, Mor-ley Fund Management Singapore Ltd. This column has the support of the Investment Management Association of Singapore and the Stock Exchange of Singapore. )


中文：公司债券的新机会
近几年的金融市场，在追求增值与安稳之间越来越有两极化的趋势。为收入而投资，但只接受中低风险者，很多都转向公司债券，以替代股票和政府债券。　　

股票和政府债券很合一些投资者胃口。年轻投资人士一般从股票的资本增值中获益，因为他们通常是长线投资，不太在意眼前的收益。要避免风险的投资者，则愿意接受政府债券目前提供的相对低收益。

但很多投资者介于两者之间。公司债券是股票和政府债券的替代品，两边的好处都有一点。这类投资的风险不比股票大，收益又高出政府债券。　

举例说，在新加坡，一个2004年到期，息票利率为3.5%的政府债券，目前能提供的收益大概是3.4%。也就是说，每100新元票面价值的债券，现售价为100.50元。所以年息如果是3.50元，便是实价的大约3.4%。　

相比之下，福特汽车公司以新元发售——因此对新加坡投资者来说没有汇率风险的债券，也是2004年到期。它的息票是4.5%，不过现售价稍微低过票面价值，票面价值每100新元售99.50新元。　　这意味着投资者能获得较政府债券稍微高一点，约为实价4.6%的收益。两者差距一般称为利差。在我们看来，目前福特和新加坡政府债券的利差是1.2%左右。这个利差，就是投资者接受了福特债券比新加坡政府债券多出一些风险的回报。　　

如果是在美国或欧洲，福特汽车须支付的利差预料少一点。福特汽车这时愿意多给，可能是想讨好新加坡投资者，希望日后有所收获。　

公司债券的主要缺点，是投资者只能通过可信贷程度，间接分享公司的成果，而不能像股票持有者那样，从公司的扩充中获益。另一方面，这些债券投资者承担的绝对风险却又低于股东，因为息票的付款是不能勾销的，而在公司无法还债时，债券持有人的债权，有很高的优先权。　　不过，要评估一家公司债券的价值和风险，主要因素在于该公司的可信贷程度。信贷评级机构在这个过程中扮演吃重角色。穆迪和标准普尔是主要的两家机构。它们给发售债券的公司和个别公司债券评级。这些级别，给了投资者有关信贷素质的参考，显示了债券条款没有全部被履行的风险有多大。　　穆迪在优质或投资级方面的评级有3个。其中，从最高优质1级的Aaa，到最低优质3级的Baa3共有10个等次。穆迪的非优质或投机性的评级也有3个，其下又分11个等次。标准普尔使用大致相同的系统，从AAA到最后表示债券出问题的D。　　

流通性也是一个重要因素。投资者须了解就算是美国或英国这类成熟的市场，公司债券的二手市场也是相当小的。也就是说，和股票或政府债券不同，要转售给其他投资者并不容易。像新加坡这类公司债券市场开发度较低的地方，缺乏流通性更为显著。这也是推动公司债券的收益，使它高于政府债券和其他市场的额外因素。

新加坡的公司债券市场预料会得到发展，以致证券种类更多，二手市场流通性更大。由于越来越多性质不同的投资者，为取得收益而投入到公司债券市场，发展的推动力相信来自强劲的需求。　　公司债券的风险虽然大于政府债券，但在很大程度上，可借助信贷分析，以及对债券发售者和债券条款的其他制衡手段加以控制。而投资者则有机会取得不错的现金收益。（作者是莫利基金董事经理。本栏是新加坡投资管理协会与股票交易所联办的公众教育计划。）





股票市场
Stock market investment gives you the unique opportunity to take a direct part in the growth and success of companies. When you buy shares in a company, it means that you actually own a portion of that company. As part owner, you benefit by receiving part of the profits or dividends and sharing in the growth of the value of the company.

The company benefits by raising funds or capital when your shares and other shares are first sold. These funds are used to operate and expand the business.

In general, share investments produce better returns than fixed interest investments, particularly when money is invested long term.

Although there are rises and falls in the stock market, history shows that over the long term, the value of the stock market rises. In the US, which has a long history of deregulated stock market, the average real return per annum after inflation is approximately 10%.

Direct investment in the stock market also gives you control over where you put your money. You decide which companies you want to invest in and when the time is right for you to see your shares. If you want to be in control, stock market investment is a good option.

Another attractive feature of stock market investment is the flexibility to change your investments when your personal circumstances change. For example, if you need money for a well-earned break, an extension on our house or your children's education, all you need to do is sell your shares.

Stock market investment allows you to follow your investment. You'll receive regularinformation from companies you invest in and can attend meetings. This enables you to gain a unique insight into the results and strategies of the organization and learn a lot in the process.

Market investment also allows you to follow a particular interest you have. For example, you may have lived all you life in a forestry area and are interested in supporting this industry and benefiting from its success, by investing in listed forestry stocks.



中文：股票市场（上）
股市投资给你一个独一无二的直接参与公司发展的机会。当你购买了某个公司的股票，也就意味着你实际上拥有了公司的一部分。作为公司的部分拥有者，你有权分享公司发展所带来的利润或者红利和公司发展所带来的增值。

公司通过发行股票募集资金或资本获利。当你或他人购买了公司新发行的股票，公司也就募得了资金，用于公司的运营和业务拓展。

总体来说，股票投资比固定利率投资的回报率要高，尤其是在长期投资方面更是如此。

虽然股市有涨有跌，但历史证明，从长期来看，股市呈上升趋势。美国股市历来不受什么管制，其年均回报率，扣除通货膨胀率以后为10%左右。

直接投资于股市让你可以把握投资去向。你可以自己决定投资于哪家公司，何时卖出股票。如果你想对投资有所把握，股市是一个不错的选择。

股市投资另一个吸引人的地方就是它的灵活性。你可以根据自身情况的变化而改变投资。比如说当你想去度假，扩建房子或者为孩子的教育而需要用钱的时候，你要做的就是卖出股票。

股市投资让你可以跟踪投资去向。你可以从所投资的公司定期得到信息，还可以出席公司的会议。这将使你更加深入地了解到公司的发展战略和进程，从中你也会学到很多东西。

你还可以按照各人爱好进行投资。比如，你一辈子都住在林区，你也想支持林业的发展，就可以投资上市的林业公司，你还可以从公司的发展中获益。





如何选择股票
When technical analysis is mentioned, people often think of analysts plotting price movements of stocks,drawing lines to find trends, support or resistance. Technical analysis is the art of deducing probable future trend from historical records of stock trading. It is the study of the stock market itself rather than the external factors that influence the market. The most familiar indicators used are the price and volume of a stock.

Advocates of technical analysis believe that information is not immediately reflected in the market prices of stocks. For example, when a piece of good news about a company is available, it is not immediately known to everyone but is slowly passed from one person to another.

This process takes time and an upward price trend develops for that company as more and more people hear the good news and want to buy the stock and fewer and fewer people are willing to sell the stock. The stock price which has started to move in an uptrend will continue to do so until something happens to change the supply-demand balance.

For the technical analyst, he does not need to know what the good news or any otherinformation that is affecting the stock price is; the chart will tell him whether the stock price is going to move up or down. He does not need to know the fundamentals of the company because if the price is going up, the fundamentals must be improving.

On the other hand, fundamental analysis examines all relevant factors affecting the stock price in order to determine an intrinsic value for that stock. If the market price is below the intrinsic value, then the stock is undervalued and should be bought. The factors to consider include balance sheet items, corporate management, business prospects and earnings outlook.

The fundamental analyst calculates financial ratios based on data available from the balance sheet and income statement of a company. From these ratios, he deduces the financial strength and earnings trend of the company. Then he will meet the company's management to affirm his deductions, to understand the business and to learn of any new development of the company and the industry.

A widely used tool in fundamental analysis is the price-earnings ratio or PE ratio. It is calculated using the stock price divided by the earnings per share (EPS) of a company. As a general rule, a stock with a low PE ratio is considered cheap although there are difficulties in applying this principle. PE ratios of two companies can only be compared if the companies are similar.

It is believed that companies in different industries deserve different PE ratios. For example, Singapore Telecom is believed to deserve a higher PE ratio than many other stocks because of its position in the telecommunication business.

However, analysts have not yet agreed on what PE ratio each industry or company deserves and there is no one way to determine the right PE ratio. Both approaches attempt to predict the future price movement of a stock. Fundamentalists study the cause of market movement while technicians believe that the effect is all that they need to know.

Despite their differences, both approaches try to increase your probability of picking up the right stock at a right price. However, these methods only increase your chances but do not guarantee complete success. Some believe that fundamental analysis is good for picking the right stock while technical analysis is appropriate to decide the right price or time to buy.

For the professional investor, he has to take another step of deciding the sequence of analysis. This will have an impact on how the investor divides his money among different countries and stocks. Basically, the investor decides whether the market as a whole or the company itself is more important in determining stock prices. Both factors definitely influence stock prices but the degree of influence is the issue.

The top-down approach or sometimes known as the Economy-Industry-Company (EIC) model emphasises the market over the company. It starts with the analysis of different economies to determine which country could offer the investor better returns.

In the selected economy, it searches for industries that provide better prospects and it picks the best companies within these industries. The top-down approach offers a systematic and structured way to analyse stocks. It advocates that the economy and industry effects are significant factors in determining the total return for stocks.

The bottom-up or stock picking approach believes in finding stocks that are undervalued which can provide superior returns irrespective of the market and industry factors. The company effect is the dominant factor in determining stock return.

There is no overwhelming evidence to suggest which approach offers superior returns to the investors. The most important thing is that an investor is comfortable with a particular method, understands its strengths and limitations, experiments with it, finds that it works for him and abides by the method.



中文：如何选择股票?
一提起技术分析，人们就会想到股票分析员画股价走势图，找支持线和阻力线。基本上，这个方式是根据过去的记录预测未来表现。换句话说，技术分析研究股市本身，不是影响它的外在因素；而股价和成交量是它最常用的数据。

技术分析的支持者认为，影响股价的消息没有立即反映在股价上。举例说，一家公司的好消息并不是每个人都同时知道的，而是从一人传到另一个，整个过程需要一段时间。越来越多人知道这好消息后会买进，而越来越少的人愿意卖掉，这么一来使股价逐步升高。股价会因此继续上升直到供应与需求的平衡出现变化。

但对技术分析员来说，他并不需要知道那好消息是什么，走势图将告诉他股价会起还是落。他也不需知道公司的基础因素，对他来说，基础会随着股价上升而改善。他们相信历史会重演，可从过去的股价走势推测它将来的表现。

另一方面，基础分析则研究所有可能影响股价的因素，以确定股票的实际价值。如果市价低过实值，就值得买进。基础分析员研究资产与负债表的项目、企业管理层、业务展望和盈利潜能，再根据资产与负债表和损益表提供的数据计算而得的比例，判断这家公司的财力和盈利趋势。分析员也会与公司的管理层会面，了解它的业务以及有关公司和行业的最新发展。

本益比是基础分析中最常用的比例，计算方式是股价除每股盈利。一般上，低本益比表示股票便宜。 不过，这个准则有时不太好用。两家公司从事相同的业务，才能够比较它们的本益比；不同行业的公司，本益比通常是不一样的。举例说，以新加坡电信在电信业的地位，它的本益比会较其他公司高。

对于每个行业的本益比应是多少，分析员们到目前为止还没有定论，而且也没有计算正确本益比的方式。 技术分析和基础分析都尝试预测股价今后的走势。它们的做法虽然不一样，但都尽可能帮助投资者以合适的价格买入有增值潜能的股票。不过，它们都只能提高可能性，而不能保证成功。有些人认为，基础分析较适合用于选择股票，而技术分析则适用于决定买入的时机和价格。

对专业投资者来说，他们还必须决定分析的步骤。这将影响投资者把资金分配于不同市场和股票的决定。基本上，他们决定市场的整体走势还是公司本身对股价的影响比较大。这两个因素都会影响股价，但程度可能不同。

从上至下的方法侧重于整体市场。它首先决定哪个市场能带来较高的回报，然后再选择具投资展望的行业和属于这一行业的公司。这是个系统化的股票分析方式，认为经济和行业是决定股票回报的重要因素。

而从下至上的选择股票方式，无视市场和行业因素，重点是选择市值低于股值的股票，认为公司本身是决定回报的最重要因素。

哪个方式能带来较高的回报，并没任何研究证明。最重要的是投资者懂得所选择方式的优缺点，并尝试使用。









股市投资
Investment
Stock market investment gives you the unique opportunity to take a direct part in the growth and success of companies. When you buy shares in a company, it means that you actually own a portion of that company. As part owner, you benefit by receiving part of the profits or dividends and sharing in the growth of the value of the company.

The company benefits by raising funds or capital when your shares and other shares are first sold. These funds are used to operate and expand the business.

In general, share investments produce better returns than fixed interest investments, particularly when money is invested long term.

Although there are rises and falls in the stock market, history shows that over the long term, the value of the stock market rises. In the US, which has a long history of deregulated stock market, the average real return per annum after inflation is approximately 10%.

Direct investment in the stock market also gives you control over where you put your money. You decide which companies you want to invest in and when the time is right for you to see your shares. If you want to be in control, stock market investment is a good option.

Another attractive feature of stock market investment is the flexibility to change your investments when your personal circumstances change. For example, if you need money for a well-earned break, an extension on our house or your children's education, all you need to do is sell your shares.

Stock market investment allows you to follow your investment. You'll receive regularinformation from companies you invest in and can attend meetings. This enables you to gain a unique insight into the results and strategies of the organization and learn a lot in the process.

Market investment also allows you to follow a particular interest you have. For example, you may have lived all you life in a forestry area and are interested in supporting this industry and benefiting from its success, by investing in listed forestry stocks.




                                                              中文：股市投资
股市投资给你一个独一无二的直接参与公司发展的机会。当你购买了某个公司的股票，也就意味着你实际上拥有了公司的一部分。作为公司的部分拥有者，你有权分享公司发展所带来的利润或者红利和公司发展所带来的增值。

公司通过发行股票募集资金或资本获利。当你或他人购买了公司新发行的股票，公司也就募得了资金，用于公司的运营和业务拓展。

总体来说，股票投资比固定利率投资的回报率要高，尤其是在长期投资方面更是如此。

虽然股市有涨有跌，但历史证明，从长期来看，股市呈上升趋势。美国股市历来不受什么管制，其年均回报率，扣除通货膨胀率以后为10%左右。

直接投资于股市让你可以把握投资去向。你可以自己决定投资于哪家公司，何时卖出股票。如果你想对投资有所把握，股市是一个不错的选择。

股市投资另一个吸引人的地方就是它的灵活性。你可以根据自身情况的变化而改变投资。比如说当你想去度假，扩建房子或者为孩子的教育而需要用钱的时候，你要做的就是卖出股票。

股市投资让你可以跟踪投资去向。你可以从所投资的公司定期得到信息，还可以出席公司的会议。这将使你更加深入地了解到公司的发展战略和进程，从中你也会学到很多东西。

你还可以按照各人爱好进行投资。比如，你一辈子都住在林区，你也想支持林业的发展，就可以投资上市的林业公司，你还可以从公司的发展中获益。





四．人民银行介绍
The People's Bank of China (PBC or PBOC) is the central bank of the People's Republic of China with the power to control monetary policy and regulate financial institutions in mainland China. The People’s Bank of China has the most financial assets of any single public finance institution ever.[2]
History
The bank was established on December 1, 1948 based on the consolidation of the Huabei Bank, the Beihai Bank and the Xibei Farmer Bank. The headquarters was first located in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, and then moved to Beijing in 1949. Between 1949 and 1978 the PBC was the only bank in the People's Republic of China and was responsible for both central banking and commercial banking operations[dubious – discuss].
In the 1980s, as part of economic reform, the commercial banking functions of the PBC were split off into four independent but state-owned banks and in 1983, the State Council promulgated that the PBC would function as the central bank of China. Mr. Chen Yuan was instrumental in modernizing the bank in the early 1990's. Its central bank status was legally confirmed on March 18, 1995 by the 3rd Plenum of the 8th National People's Congress. In 1998, the PBC underwent a major restructuring. All provincial and local branches were abolished, and the PBC opened nine regional branches, whose boundaries did not correspond to local administrative boundaries. In 2003, the Standing Committee of the Tenth National People's Congress approved an amendment law for strengthening the role of PBC in the making and implementation of monetary policy for safeguarding the overall financial stability and provision of financial services.