India and China need help to grow, not hectoring

Every time there is a spike in oil prices, or when food costs more, or there is a renewed worry about carbon and climate change, academics, pundits, and the press immediately point to the high-consumption future of India and China.?

They are wrong to do so when we consider the causes of energy and food challenges, and, more importantly, when we think of the actions and policies needed to manage changes in coming decades. If it is questionable that India and China are to blame for the global energy crunch, it is even less acceptable to expect them to adhere to pleas to moderate their energy consumption.

Historically, energy consumption has correlated with economic growth. The present debate over energy often focuses on two dimensions: climate change (from greenhouse gases), and the scarcity of fossil fuels.

With growing populations and economies, India and China will certainly consume a growing fraction of global resources, but they consume only 3 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, of the world’s petroleum today. The global leader, the US，consumes just under a quarter.

Looking at future options, why does it matter if India and China are or are not similar in terms of energy consumption and needs? Global treaties aim to modify future consumption, and mechanisms or formulae that are considered fair (and likely to be ratified) must be cognizant of differences. Given the differences in their systems, needs, and incentives, a proposal meant to appeal to both may not appeal to either. Without global participation, no solution is likely work.

China already has the world’s second-largest electricity grid, and, at current rates of growth, it will soon become the largest electricity producer in the world. Like India, most of this is based on coal, the least “green” of the leading fossil fuels.

India’s present installed electricity capacity is not in the same league. The result is that, for the coming decade, it will not be able to grow at a rate anywhere near that of China. In absolute net growth, the US will add more than twice as much capacity than India in 2007-08.

China’s growth of energy consumption has been positive for its population. It has now provided electricity to an estimated 98 per cent of households, unlike India or Africa. India has not met its energy growth targets even in the absence of carbon constraints 一 can we realistically expect it to moderate due to global concerns when it will say it is not the prime polluter? (425)

The Cause of Earthquakes

The earth is divided into three main layers – a hard outer crust, a soft middle layer and a center core. The outer crust is broken into massive, irregular pieces called “plates.” These plates move very slowly, driven by energy forces deep within the earth. Earthquakes occur when these

moving plates grind and scrape against each other.

In California, the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate meet. The Pacific Plate covers most of the Pacific Ocean floor and the California coastline. The North American Plate stretches across the North American continent and parts of the Atlantic Ocean. The primary boundary between them is the San Andreas Fault. It is more than 650 miles long and extends 10 miles deep. Many smaller faults, such as the Hayward Fault, branch from the San Andreas Fault.

The Pacific Plate grinds northwestward past the North American Plate at a rate of about two inches per year. Parts of the San Andreas Fault system adapt to this movement by a constant “creep” resulting in frequent, moderate, earth tremors. In other areas, movement is not constant and strain can build up for hundreds of years resulting in strong earthquakes when it is released.

Unlike other natural disasters, there is no warning for earthquakes. Future earthquakes are a serious threat to Californians, which is why the Fire Department recommends preparing before an earthquake hits. (232)

“将來韵韵考上‘北大’或‘牛津’，我可能都不会这么兴奋！ ”魏伦斯感慨道。

韵韵是她的儿子，今年3岁。前不久，他终于被一家公办托儿所“录取”。“胜出”的条 件之一是，可一次性交清“赞助费”3万元人民币。

尽管有明码标价–按照教育局、财政局等部门的文件规定收费，但不少公办托儿所都 要收取规定之外、不怎么合法的“赞助费”以及各种名目的费用，实际上，除了每月700元 的日托费，这些已成为约定俗成的“必须”费用，一般在几千元至几万元不等。

“赞助费我们交得非常心甘情愿，毕竟儿子没有‘输’在‘起跑线’上。”魏伦斯说。她与丈 夫的年收入加起来近22万元人民币，与很多人相比，算是比较“有钱”的，但他们还是最终 放弃了一家赞助费要5万的“更好一些”的托儿所，“这属于‘漫天要价’了。”

魏伦斯也感受到“无底洞”的压力与负担，她要随时准备交费、交费、再交费。托儿所 经常开展联谊活动、户外比赛，并要统一服装–都需要家长另外付费。

魏伦斯自己也明白，家长们对学前教育期望值过高，导致了托儿所费用的水涨船高。 据她了解，很多父母均认同这样一种看法：如今每个家庭都是一个孩子，于是一些托儿所 利用家长“望子成龙”（“望女成凤”）的心态，“投其所好”，想方设法推出各种名目的学前 教育计划和培养目标，无形中，也大大增加了家长的投入。（538)

部分参考答案：“I won’t be as exciting as now I am even if Yunyun is admited by Beijing University or Oxford University in the future”, Mrs. Wellens sighed.

Yunyun, 3-year old now, is her son. Not long ago, he was succefully “admitted” by a public-held kindergaten. However, his win means an one-off payment of 30000 Yuan as “sponsor fee”.

Despite that Education Bureau, Finance Bureau and some other government ministries had spelled out a series of clearly stated regulations and documents as guidances, those public-held kindergartens still charge extra fees under the name of all kinds of items, which are somewhat illegal. In fact, besides 700 Yuan per month as daily-caring fee, these illegal fees, ranges from several thousand yuan to tens of thousand of yuan, have become a common “must” among parents.

目前，在我国许多农民并不是没有能力消费，而是不敢消费。不敢消费的原因，除了 世世代代养成能俭即俭、能不要就不要的良好生活习惯外，根本原因在于农民需要为今后 的闩子做好储蓄准备。所以，我们能否给农民一个放心的保障体系，成为能否拉得动农民 消费的关键。农民不敢消费，而是把钱积蓄起来的目的主要有三个：一是养老，二是看病， 三是教育。由此可见，我们要使农民敢于消费关键在于为农民建立一个以养老、医疗、教 育为主的完善社会保障体系。这个社会保障体系一旦建立起來，农民自然而然就会敢于消费。（235)

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