难句突破


If someone's score places him in a group in which a known proportion has gone on to commit a crime on release from detention, then the risk that person will prove a recidivist is thought to be similar to the risk for the group as a whole.

主体句式：If someone's score places him in a group… then the risk is thought to be similar to…

结构分析：这个句子分为逗号前后的两个部分，其中的每一个部分包含一个定语从句。前半个句子中，in which引导的定语从句修饰group；而后半句中，that person will prove a recidivist 作为同位语从句修饰risk。

句子译文：如果一个人的分数属于出狱后犯罪率很高的一组，那么此人是惯犯的几率就大体上和这组的整体几率相同。





题目分析


1. C 细节题。根据文章第一、二段的内容，风险预测对于个人的预测错误率极大，几乎完全不可靠。选项B错误的原因在于文章里面没有直接说明风险预测是否对于群组人有效。

2. A 推理题。文章第四段中举了两个测试的具体情况，这两个测试分别进行了7到10年和5到15年，因此都是长达多年的跟踪性试验。A选项longitudinal的意思为“长度的；纵长的”，可以引申为长时间的。

3. D 细节题。文章第四段第一句话指出哈特博士的实验“follow this logic”，“this logic”指的正是第三段最后一句话，即“如果一个人的分数属于出狱后犯罪率很高的一组，那么此人是惯犯的几率就大体上和这组的整体几率相同”，也就是说，如果组内差异较小的话，关于组的风险预测可以推及到组内的个人。

4. B 细节题。根据文章第五段，如果将群体的标准方法用于个体，最终得到的结果是具有误导性的。D选项提到的confidence level“置信度”是一个统计上的参数，与本题并无关联。

5. C 细节题。C选项的信息来自文章的最后一句话，A life-insurance company, for instance, could wrongly predict the life span of every person it insured but still get the correct result for the group，即“例如，一个人寿保险公司也许不能准确预测每个投保人的寿命长度，但它可以对群体做出准确预测。”





参考译文


过去的付出并不代表未来的收获，这至少可以给投资者一些启示。但一个人的犯罪动机能通过他过去的记录来预测吗？一个临床法医心理学家小组的回答是否定的。风险预测不仅站不住脚，而且即使是只用于个体而不是群体，其误差之大也会导致结果失去意义。

只有当一组数据内部差异程度相对较小时，据此做出的对个体的判断通常才会比较可靠。尽管如此，人们还是例行公事地用风险评估来辅助决定谁应该坐牢、谁应该接受治疗以及谁可获得自由。风险预测同样用于评估从嫌疑恐怖分子到潜在罪犯的各种威胁。

加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省西蒙弗雷泽大学的斯蒂芬·哈特和他的同事决意要找出用于个体而非群体的风险评估测试的准确性到底有多大。这些测试先根据个人年龄、社交经历、犯罪史以及所选择的受害者类型等因素给人们打出一个分数。如果一个人的分数属于出狱后犯罪率很高的一组，那么此人是惯犯的几率就大体上和这组的整体几率相同。

哈特博士和他的同事在上月的《英国精神病学杂志》上发表了一篇论文，主要介绍了按照这一逻辑进行的两个有名实验。第一个实验包括12项内容的测试，用来评估7至10年间的一般暴力风险；第二个实验包括10项相关内容的测试，用来评估5至15年间的暴力和性暴力风险。研究人员也评估了用来预测性侵犯和家庭暴力的其他一些测试。

他们发现每组成员间的差别很大。比如在其中一项测试中，被测小组成员15年内再次进行性侵犯的概率估计是36%。在95%的置信度下，他们计算出的实际范围是在30%与43%之间。但计算群体的平均概率要比计算个体的概率容易得多。因此，如果将群体的标准方法用于个体，同样在95%的置信度下，他们计算出一个人是惯犯的几率在3%与91%之间。很明显，看似准确的原始数据有很大的误导性。

这个原理不仅专用于心理学，也已被统计学家认可了数十年之久。他们称其为生态学谬论（尽管这个术语还有更广泛和精细的意义）。医学也被基于统计学的程序搞得一团糟。实际上，这个技术只有在成功和失败都综合起来的时候才真正有用。例如，一个人寿保险公司也许不能准确预测每个投保人的寿命长度，但它可以对群体做出准确预测。





Unit 58


Sloth may be seen as a sin, but some of history's most accomplished men were fond of lounging around. Leonardo da Vinci enjoyed napping. So did Albert Einstein and Winston Churchill. Richard Buckminster Fuller advocated taking 30-minute naps every six hours. He is reported to have abandoned the practice only because “his schedule conflicted with that of his business associates, who insisted on sleeping like other men.”

No one has yet proved a correlation between napping and artistic brilliance or professional success, but an intriguing study published this week in the Archives of Internal Medicine claims to find a link between daytime siestas and good health. A team of researchers led by Androniki Naska of the University of Athens Medical School and Dimitrios Trichopoulos of Harvard's School of Public Health followed over 23,000 Greek patients with no history of coronary disease, cancer or stroke, for an average of six years. Their conclusion: napping just might save your life.

The study found that the group of adults who took siestas (defined as 30-minute naps) at least three times a week had a third fewer deaths from heart disease than an equivalent group who did not sleep at all during the day. The benefit was greater for men than for women. (Whether women benefited at all was hard to estimate as there were too few deaths among them during the course of the study.) It was also greater for working men than for those who had retired. However, a number of previous studies done in the Mediterranean and in parts of Central America (where siestas remain common) have come up with conflicting results, but Dr Naska and Dr Trichopoulos argue that those studies have often been flawed. The subjects in some, for example, had survived heart attacks and may therefore have benefited more from napping than healthy individuals do.

Given that all of the subjects of this new study were Greek, could the much-celebrated Mediterranean diet deserve credit, rather than the siestas? The firm answer from Dr Trichopoulos is “No”. And he is in a good position to say so, for it was he who did the pioneering research that put olive oil and a plant-based diet on the scientific map in the first place. Unlike some other siesta studies, his was controlled for diet, smoking, exercise and other relevant variables. The earlier findings about the benefits of the Mediterranean diet are confirmed, he says, and napping seems to help on top of that.

Before buying a sofa for the office, however, it might be wise to consider the possibility of selection bias. Dr Trichopoulos concedes that “Type A”personalities, whose hard-working lives may make them prone to heart attacks, are also much less likely to take naps during the day. That bias might be skewing the study's results. Even so, he advises, “Take a nap if you can.”

注（1）：本文选自Economist；

注（2）：本文习题命题模仿对象为2004年真题Text 1。

1. What do scientists expect to achieve in the study of daytime siestas?

A) They want to prove that siestas help people become smarter.

B) They want to prove that siestas can make people happier.

C) They want to prove that siestas may prolong people's life.

D) They want to prove that siestas help cure some diseases.

2. Which of the following is TRUE about taking nap regularly?

A) One's possibility of dying from heart diseases is smaller.

B) One is surely to enjoy a long life with the habit of taking siestas.

C) Whether siestas benefit women is still unknown due to the limited member of women participating the test.

D) A working man usually outlives a working woman of similar age if he has the habit of siestas.

3. The expression “lounging around”（Lines 1~2, Paragraph 1) most probably means_______.

A) sleeping a lot

B) taking a nap every few hours

C) relaxing oneself

D) being lazy

4. Why is Dr Trichopoulos in a good position to deny the benefit from Mediterranean diet in this case?

A) Because the research Dr Trichopoulos has done on napping is more convincing.

B) Because Dr Trichopoulos is a forerunner of research on Mediterranean diet.

C) Because Dr Trichopoulos knows nothing about the nutritious value of Mediterranean diet.

D) Because Mediterranean diet is notorious for its unhealthiness.

5. Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?

A) The research fails to apply universally because it only studies a limited scope of sample that is short of representativeness.

B) Most of those who have great achievements usually have the habit of taking siestas regularly.

C) People who work under great pressure benefit more from napping than the retired.

D) Dr Trichopoulos's siesta study conflicts with previous studies, which mitigate the credibility of his study.





篇章剖析


本文是一篇说明文，主要介绍了一个关于午睡和健康关系的最新科学研究。第一段介绍了历史上一些名人都有午睡的习惯；第二段介绍了纳斯卡和特里克伯罗斯进行的实验，说明午睡可以延长人们的生命；第三段对研究进行补充说明，同时对之前结论与此相反的研究进行说明；第四段对相反的研究结论进行批驳论证；第五段中特里克伯罗斯博士指出了可能导致报告结果歪曲的偏见，并提出自己的建议——让人们尽量午睡。





词汇注释


sloth /sləʊθ/ n. 怠惰，懒惰

lounge /laʊndʒ/ vi. 懒洋洋地躺卧，闲荡

nap /næp/ n. / v. （白天）小睡，打盹

correlation /ˌkɒrɪˈleɪʃən/ n. 相互关系，相关

siesta /sɪˈestə/ n. 午睡

coronary /ˈkɒrənəri/ adj. 冠的，花冠的，冠状的

stroke /strəʊk/ n. 中风

equivalent /ɪˈkwɪvələnt/ adj. 相等的，相当的

flaw /flɔː/ vt. 使有缺陷，使无效

bias /ˈbaɪəs/ n. 偏见

prone /prəʊn/ adj. 有…倾向的

skew /skjuː/ v. 曲解；歪曲





难句突破


The study found that the group of adults who took siestas (defined as 30-minute naps) at least three times a week had a third fewer deaths from heart disease than an equivalent group who did not sleep at all during the day.

主体句式：The study found that…

结构分析：这个句子的主要内容集中于that后面的宾语从句，其中该从句的主体结构为the group of adults had a third fewer deaths than an equivalent group。从句中的第一个who引导的定语从句用来修饰第一组成人的情况，其中注意到括号中的内容是对siestas的概念定义；从句中的第二个who引导的定语从句用来修饰第二组成人的情况。

句子译文：研究表明，那些每周至少午休3次，且每次至少睡30分钟的成人组与日间从不午休的成人组相比，由心脏病致死的几率低了1/3。





题目分析


1. C 细节题。文章第二段最后，作者明确指出科学家们的结论是午休有可能延长人们的寿命。A选项的表述是一个没有得到证实的说法，B和D选项的陈述都没有在文章中提到。

2. A 细节题。文章第三段第一句话提到，午休较多的人比从来不午休的人由心脏病致死的几率低了1/3，因此A选项正确。B选项的表述过于肯定，文章（第二段最后一句话）只是提出了一个可能性而已。C选项前半句正确，但是后面原因表述错误，真正的原因是因为几乎没有女性在实验过程中死亡。D选项错误在于文章第三段指出男人从小睡中获得的好处比女人更多，但这并不意味着他们的寿命会比女人更长。

3. D 语义题。lounge有懒散、懒洋洋的意思，从上下文中也可以推出这个意思。尽管文章接下来也提到了一些名人喜欢小憩的习惯，但是A和B选项都不足以概括lounge的原义。

4. B 细节题。根据文章第四段，特里克伯罗斯博士是科学研究地中海饮食的先驱人物，而且其研究具有重大的贡献性，因而他的结论也就更加具有说服力。

5. C 细节题。文章第三段指出，在工作的人们比退休人士从午休获益更为明显。A选项的错误原因在于文章没有提到这一点。B选项的错误原因在于并不是大部分有成就的人都有午休的习惯，文章第一段只是举了四个名人的例子。D选项的错误原因在于虽然特里克伯罗斯博士的研究与前人的研究结论有矛盾，但是他充分指出了前人研究的漏洞，从而说明自己的研究成果更加具有说服力。





参考译文


懒惰也许会被认为是一种罪过，但是历史上一些最成功的人士却喜欢懒洋洋地躺卧着。列奥纳多·达·芬奇喜欢小寐，阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦和温斯顿·丘吉尔亦如此。里查德·巴克敏斯特·福勒提倡每隔6个小时就小睡30分钟。据说他后来放弃了这个习惯仅仅是因为“他的日程安排与那些坚持和别人有一样作息时间的同事有冲突。”

没有人能够证明小寐与杰出的艺术才能或者事业上的成功有关系，但是本周发表在《内科医学档案》上一份引人入胜的研究报告声称发现了日间午睡与健康之间的一种联系。一个由雅典医科大学的安德罗尼基·纳斯卡和哈佛公共卫生学院的季米特里奥斯·特里克伯罗斯所领导的研究小组对23,000名没有冠心病、癌症或者中风记录的希腊病人进行平均长达6年的研究。研究结论表明：午休有可能延长你的生命。

研究表明，那些每周至少午休3次，且每次至少睡30分钟的成人组与日间从不午休的成人组相比，由心脏病致死的几率低了1/3。男性从午睡中的获益比女性更加明显。（由于女性在整个研究过程中死亡数量很少，因此女性是否从中获益难以估计。）男性上班族比退休人士的获益更为明显。但是，在午休仍然普遍的地中海地区和中美洲的部分地区曾进行过的一些研究得到的却是相反的结论，不过纳斯卡博士和特里克伯罗斯博士认为这些研究都存在问题。比如，一些曾经有过心脏病发作史的研究对象从小睡中的获益相对于那些健康人要明显得多。

考虑到所有的研究对象都是希腊人，特里克伯罗斯博士所在研究小组所得结论的主要因素是否是驰名的地中海饮食而不是午休呢？他坚定地回答说“不”，而且，他的回答是令人信服的，因为正是他开创性地将橄榄油和素食为主的饮食放到科学领域内来进行研究。与其他关于午休的研究不同的是，他的研究控制了饮食、吸烟、运动和其他相关的变量。他说，早前关于地中海饮食益处的研究已经得到了肯定，而小睡在饮食的基础上也起到了非常重要的作用。

然而，在给办公室添置沙发之前，最好还是先考虑一下选择性偏见的可能性。特里克伯罗斯博士认为那些辛勤工作从而易于发心脏病的“A型”人士，在白天小睡比较少。这些偏见也许会歪曲研究报告的结果。即便如此，特里克伯罗斯博士还是建议：“如果可以的话就小睡一会吧。”





Unit 59


Whether you are a gorilla, a four-year-old child, a politician or an Olympic athlete, the signs of victory are obvious for all to see: the chest inflates, the head is thrown back and the victor displays a strutting and confident air. Shame at being defeated is equally recognizable: the head bows, and sometimes the shoulders slump and the chest narrows too——something that is not a million miles away from the cringing postures associated with submission in animals, from chimpanzees to rats, rabbits and even salamanders. Are these displays of pride and shame common to all humans? If they are, they will have evolved to serve some function.

The past week in Beijing demonstrates that different cultures do indeed show similar displays of pride and shame. But it is difficult to say if these reactions are instinctive or learnt. Jessica Tracy at the University of British Columbia and David Matsumoto at San Francisco State University decided to explore this by comparing pictures of blind and sighted athletes from different cultures.

In their research, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team analyzed images from the judo competition held in the 2004 Olympic and Paralympic Games. They looked for whether or not competitors indulged in post-match behavior such as tilting their heads back, raising their arms or expanding their chests in victory, or hiding their face or narrowing their chests in defeat. They found that in response to success and failure, people from different cultures displayed the stereotypical gestures of pride and some of the components of expressions of shame. This included the blind competitors——even those blind from birth.

Although the researchers say that congenitally blind children might have been taught by their parents to lift their hands above their heads after a victory, they speculate that it would be harder to teach them the full spectrum of displays they witnessed. These findings, then, imply that displays of pride are not simply cultural stereotypes learnt after birth, but an innate form of behavior that was relevant to the way humans lived. A display of pride (or shame), in other words, may be an evolved and innate behavioral response.

Why? Such displays may have an evolutionary function. People could be advertising their accomplishments and ensuring their status and acceptance within their social group. Similarly, shame shows acceptance of a defeat and a reluctance to fight on (which may help to avoid further aggression), and so might well be a display of submission.

The researchers also found that the behavioral response to shame was weaker in sighted athletes from cultures that were individualistic——or “self-expression valuing”——societies in the West. They suggest that athletes from these parts were suppressing responses in accordance with “cultural norms”that stigmatize displays of shame. If so, this would explain why the congenitally blind displayed more shame in defeat than did people who became blind later in life.

Culture has a lot to do with displays of victory, whether it is the two-fingered “V”salute or footballers removing their clothing. Both are culturally influenced, but they have their roots in showing exactly who is on top.

注（1）：本文选自Economist；

注（2）：本文习题命题模仿对象为2004年真题Text 4（个别题目顺序加以调整）。

1. The ways humans of different cultures display the expressions of pride and shame are______.

A) learnt

B) identical

C) alike

D) instinctive

2. We can infer from the text that the object of the study is to______.

A) discover whether displays of pride and shame are culturally determined or innate

B) find out how differently blind and sighted athletes would display pride and shame

C) pinpoint how being blind can influence people's specific behaviors

D) compare the behaviors of athletes from different cultural backgrounds

3. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, according to the text, is probably______.

A) a manual on scientific research

B) an academic conference

C) an online academic forum

D) an academic journal

4. According to the text, people display pride or shame probably because______.

A) they are in favor of evolutionary progress

B) they want to be accepted by a social group and protect themselves

C) they are required by their culture to show these emotions

D) they want to fight for victory and avoid failure

5. What can we learn from the last two paragraphs?

A) Culture is ultimately accountable for human display of pride and shame.

B) The fact that culture still exerts influence on human display of pride and shame undermines the conclusion of the research.

C) Culture plays a part in shaping the way people display their pride and shame.

D) Congenitally blind people display more shame in defeat than those who become blind later in life because they have different genes.