will表示对现在的推测很少用，主要是表示对将来的“预测”。should表示推测还有其他限制，详见下一节内容。



思维总结

本节主要讨论了情态动词对现在的推测的用法。读者需要掌握推测现在的结构，即“情态动词＋一般式”，以及肯定与否定推测时不同的情态动词所表示的确信程度不同。



思维训练

Exercise 8.2

口语练习：请与你的英语伙伴，针对下列情景做出推测。

例如：

A: I am thinking of something made of metal that you can find in my pocket. What could it be?

B: It could be a pen. It could be some keys. It might be a paper clip. It may be a small pocket-knife. It could be a coin.

A: I was thinking of the keys in my pocket.

1．Something has four legs and is found on a farm.

2．Something is sweet and you can eat it.

3．Something you can play on a large field.

4．Something that has wheels

请用must not或don't have to填空。

5．I've already finished all my homework, so I________study tonight.

6．You________forget to take your keys with you.

7．You________introduce me to Dr. Smith. We've already met.

8．A person__________become rich and famous in order to live a successful life.

9．A person_________get married in order to lead a happy and fulfilling life.

10．You_________play with sharp knives.

11．We_________go to the concert if you don't want to, but it might be good.

12．I_________go to the doctor. I'm feeling much better.

13．In order to be a good salesman, you_________be rude to a customer.

14．This is an once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. We_________let it pass. We must act.

请判断下列句子中的must是“推测”还是“必须”。

15．My watch has stopped. It must be broken.

16．With that accent, you must be from Scotland.

17．You must come up and see me sometime.

18．No ifs or buts, you must wear a helmet.

19．Wayne left. He must have been feeling ill.

20．I mustn't forget to send him a gift.

21．Someone must have borrowed my dictionary.

22．What goes up must come down.

请阅读下面文章，体会其中的情态动词推测含义。

小知识

23．Did You Know?

When baby sharks are born, they quickly swim away from their mothers. This is because their mothers might see them as prey and eat them.

开心一刻

下面这个笑话讲到了古老的中华饮食文化。

24．Moshe was eating in a Chinese restaurant and was chatting to his Chinese waiter.

Moshe commented upon what a wise people the Chinese were.

"Yes," replied the waiter,　"we're wise because our culture is 4,000 years old. But Jewish people are also very wise, are they not?"

Moshe replied, "Yes, we are. Our culture is 5,000 years old."

The waiter was surprised to hear this. "That can't be true," he replied, "where did your people eat for a thousand years?"





8.3　推测用法（二）：将来预测（情态动词＋一般式）

（一）

对将来的推测，更确切地说应该是“预测（prediction）”，谓语形式也是用“情态动词＋一般式”，这与上一节讨论的对现在推测的谓语形式一样。实际上，除了must，情态动词如will，should，may，might和could都可以表示对将来的推测。比如：

1　A: What did the weatherman say?

B: It will rain tomorrow.

It should rain tomorrow.

It may rain tomorrow.

It might/could rain tomorrow.

上述例句的确信程度同样是由高到低。比如，should在表示推断时，没有用will表示推断时的自信心强：

2　1）Tom will know the address. 我肯定汤姆知道。

2）Tom should know the address. 我想汤姆会知道。

比如，《时代》（Time）周刊对21世纪所作的预测中提到：

3　It is a near certainty that science will discover the aging gene and find out how to turn it off. The ethical problems of who shall live and who shall die and who can have children in a crowded world will be monumentally difficult to solve.

妙语点睛

这里我们看到，因为该周刊对人类将会发现致衰老基因及将会面临的问题很确信，所以都用了will。

精品译文

几乎可以肯定的是，未来的科学会发现人类的致衰老基因，并知道如何消除这一基因。到那时，由此引出的各种问题，比如让什么人长生不老，让什么人寿终正寝，以及在这样拥挤的地球上谁可以生孩子，这些都将是难以解决的伦理问题。

我们再看看下列句子：

4　A: I hear Mary isn't getting much support in her running against Steve in the election.

B: It is not over yet. I think she will make a come back.

妙语点睛

说话人B在这里用了will，表明自己相信玛丽一定会反败为胜（Speaker B expects Mary to win.）

精品译文

A：我听说玛丽在与史蒂夫选举对决中，并没有获得很多的支持。

B：现在选举还没结束呢，我想她最终会反败为胜的。

5　A: Think it'll rain tomorrow? I am sure it won't.

B: But according to the weather report, it will rain tomorrow.

妙语点睛

说话人A很自信地说I am sure...，所以他在后面用了will（won't）。

精品译文

A：你认为明天会下雨吗？我肯定不会下雨的。

B：可是天气预报说明天要下雨的。

6　This movie will be popular in China because it explores some of the differences between Western and Eastern culture and the changing from the traditional to the modern world.

精品译文

预计这部电影将在中国大受欢迎，因为它探讨了东西方文化的差异以及从传统社会过渡到现代社会这一过程中所发生的变化。

7　If much more snow accumulates, the roads will have to be closed.

如果再有更多的雪堆积起来，那么肯定要封路的。

would表示肯定程度较大的预测。请看例句：

8　New Year's Superstitions

In many European countries, people believe that the first visitor on New Year's Day would bring them either good luck or bad luck. A dark-haired man would bring good luck. A woman or a man with light hair would bring bad luck. So some towns would choose a man with dark hair to go quickly from house to house. After he makes his rounds, the houses would be open to other visitors.

妙语点睛

这里的前三个would都是表示推测。注意，在So some towns would choose a man with dark hair to go quickly from house to house. After he makes his rounds, the houses would be open to other visitors.

一句中，这里的两个would不是表示推测，而是表示“意愿”，即属于情态动词的基本用法。

精品译文

新年的迷信

在许多欧洲国家，人们相信，在新年这天你遇到的第一个人将会给你带来不是好运就是厄运。若是遇到一头黑发的男子，这就意味着好运。若是遇到浅色头发的女子或男子，则意味着是厄运。因此，有的城镇就会专门挑选出一名深色头发的男子迅速地挨家挨户走动。等他转一圈下来之后，屋门才会打开，迎接其他客人。

should表示肯定程度较大的预测，相当于说“很可能将会这样子（most probably the case）”。请看例句：

9　The results are expected tomorrow. We should know the results tomorrow.

结果明天就出来了。我们明天就该知道结果了。

10　He should have plenty of time to get to the station. 他应该有足够多的时间去车站。

11　They shouldn't have any difficulty in finding the house. 找这个房子他们不应该有太大的困难。

12　The job should be finished by next Monday. 这项工作到下周一之前应该能够完成。

13　He is the best runner, so he should win the race. 他是最佳的跑步运动员，所以应该能赢得这个比赛。

14　The journey should take two or three days. 行程应该需要两到三天。

15　Your laundry should be ready for pick-up tomorrow. 你送洗的衣服明天就应该可以来取。

注意，should在表示推测时，也翻译成“应该”，但这并不是表示义务或责任的“应该”，而是表示说话人的主观判断或推测。

may表示约50％肯定的预测。请看例句：

16　Tomorrow's computers may have something for your nose to enjoy.

未来的计算机可能就会使你的鼻子能够闻到气味。

17　This bridge may collapse in an earthquake. 这座桥在地震中可能就会坍塌。

18　We may go camping this summer. 今年夏天我们可能去野营。

could/might表示很不肯定（如只有25％）的预测。请看例句：

19　There might/could be a strike next week. 下周可能会有罢工。

20　I might be given a new job soon. 不久我也许就会找到新的工作。

21　Look at those dark clouds. It could start raining any minute. 看这满天乌云密布的，说不定随时会下雨。

2003年3月20日，美国开始空袭伊拉克。当天中午，布什总统随即发表电视讲话，在讲话中他说：

22　A campaign on the harsh terrain of a nation as large as California could be longer and more difficult than some predict.

妙语点睛

这里小布什用的是肯定程度最低的情态动词could，来表示对未来战争局势的预测。可以理解，他不可能在战争一开始就很肯定地告诫美国士兵，这场战争will be longer and more difficult than some predict（一定会持久而艰难）。尽管后来事实证明战争并没有像美国预想的那样很快结束，直到现在美国依然没有完全从伊拉克战争中抽出身来，有人预计未来五年内美国都很难完全从伊拉克撤军。

精品译文

在一个面积同加利福尼亚州一样大的、并且充满险恶地形的国家里进行战争，意味着战争的时间可能比人们预想的要长，困难要大。

再比如，《时代》周刊对21世纪所作的预测中，提到在未来，父亲和母亲的角色恐怕会像恐龙一样消失：

23　Between invitro fertilization and cloning, dads could become dinosaurs. Moms, too, with the possibility looming of an artificial womb.

妙语点睛

当然，这只是一种对将来不是十分肯定的预测，所以《时代》周刊用词很谨慎，用了could，而不是will或should。真是难以想象，如果没有了mom and dad，人类的社会伦理将会是什么样子。

注意这个句子的结构：Moms, too, with the possibility looming of an artificial womb.相信很多读者不理解。该句完整的说法应该是：Moms could also become dinosaurs, with the possibility of an artificial womb looming.所以这里的介词短语of an artificial womb应该接在possibility后面，表述“人造子宫的可能性”。looming是一个分词，表示“可能存在”。整个短语with the possibility of an artificial womb looming其实是一个分词短语，作原因状语，来说明原因——为什么说母亲的角色也可能会消失。

精品译文

由于体外受精和克隆技术的发展，父亲的角色可能将会像恐龙一样从地球上消失。另外，由于人造子宫将会发明，母亲的角色也将可能成为历史。

同样要注意，在否定句中，can't/couldn't要比may not/might not的否定语气强烈。试比较：

24　1）We may not/might not go camping this summer. 今年夏天我们可能不去野营。

2）We can't/couldn't go camping this summer. 今年夏天我们不可能去野营。

（二）

值得注意的是，should表示说话人的一种合理的假设（the speaker's reasonable assumption），因此它是用来对说话人所希望发生的事进行推断的。若将来的事件不是他所期望发生的，则不用should表示这种推测。比如上面例句22讲到的小布什对未来战争局势的预测，他就不会说美伊这场战争should be longer and more difficult than some predict，如果他用should这样说，就意味着小布什希望战争“越持久越艰难越好”。请比较下面的例句：

25　1）Let's not go to the movie. It could be bad.

2）Let's go to the movie. The film should be really good.

妙语点睛

在例句1）中，“电影可能不好”并不是说话人所期望的，所以不说It should be bad.*在例句2）中，“电影好看”自然是人人希望的，所以说话人用should。

精品译文

1）我们别去看电影了，它或许不好看。

2）我们去看那电影吧，它应该很好看。

再如说：

26　There should be another disaster shortly.*

这样说话显得很别扭，因为它暗示说话人对灾难持赞许的态度。所以正确的说法应该是：

There could be another disaster shortly. 很快就会发生另一场灾难。

27　A: I have flushed cheeks and a slight fever.

B: You should be coming down with something.*

精品译文

A：我脸颊发红，有些低烧。

B：你应该是生病了。

妙语点睛

B的回答有问题，因为他用了should，暗示A的生病症状是他所希望的，这显然不妥，所以B最好用could，might，may或must来表达。从上面的译文中我们也看到，尽管在汉语中可以说“应该”来表达不好的事情，但英文中不可以这样。

28　A: These summer days are getting to be more than I can take. It was even too hot to go to the pool yesterday.

B: Hold on, according to the weather report we should have some relief by the end of the week.

妙语点睛

“天气转凉”是人们所希望发生的，所以用了should。

精品译文

A：这夏天热得让我越来越受不了了。昨天热得都无法去游泳池了。

B：别急，天气预报说，到这个周末，可能就会凉快点。



思维总结

首先，表示对将来的推测的情态动词较多，除了must外都可以，比如could和might等这样的过去形式的情态动词都可以表示对将来的推测。

其次，不同的情态动词所表示的确信程度不同。

最后，要理解should用来对说话人所希望发生的事进行推断。



思维训练

Exercise 8.3

请判断下列句中should是表示“义务”的“应该”，还是“推测”的“应该”。

1．Should I invite our neighbors to the wedding?

2．Dogs should be kept on a leash in public.

3．If they mailed it last week, it should be here by now.

4．Those who have studied should find the test quite easy.

5．Why should we always do what they say?

6．She should have said "thank you" for the gift.

7．How long should it take to complete the task?

8．They say you should serve red wine with steak.

开心一刻

9．Is He a Good Student?

I have one teacher who is so forgetful he gave the same test three weeks in a row. If he does that two more times, I may pass it.





8.4　推测用法（三）：过去推测（情态动词＋完成式）

（一）

肯尼迪遇刺之谜

1963年11月22日，美国历史上最年轻的总统约翰·肯尼迪（John F. Kennedy）携同夫人杰奎琳参加完一次竞选活动后，来到得克萨斯州的达拉斯市。数声枪响之后，肯尼迪随之倒在了杰奎琳的膝上，从此告别了人世。

在事发后不到48小时，中央情报局就在达拉斯市抓获了一名“嫌疑犯”——李·哈维·奥斯瓦尔德（Lee Harvey Oswald）。但可疑的是，美国政府并没有对他提起诉讼，并且不久以后，这名刺杀肯尼迪的重要嫌疑犯在众目睽睽之下被人枪杀。

1964年，美国政府就此案公布的官方调查报告《华伦报告》认定，奥斯瓦尔德是肯尼迪遇刺时唯一的凶手，他从得克萨斯州图书大楼向肯尼迪开了三枪。但15年后，美国众议院调查委员会重新对此案进行调查后得出结论称，当时刺客共向肯尼迪开了四枪，其中三枪来自图书大楼，另外一枪则来自另一个地点，这一结论进一步增加了人们对奥斯瓦尔德是单独作案的怀疑。

如今距离美国前总统约翰·肯尼迪遇刺已经有40多年，然而这场惊天谋杀案的真相至今仍迷雾重重。有调查显示，在过去的40多年里，关于肯尼迪遇刺的内幕至少有36种不同的版本，但至今没有一种版本真正令人信服，没有一种说法被证明属实。下面这篇短文就是人们围绕这个历史之谜所作的种种猜测：

On November 22, 1963, President John F. Kennedy, the thirty-fifth President of the United States, was assassinated in Dallas, Texas, while he was riding in an open car. Many people think it was foolish of him to be in an open car. He should have had a covered bulletproof car, as most world leaders do today. His death could have been prevented.

Immediately after the assassination, a suspect, Lee Harvey Oswald, was arrested. Two days later, as Oswald was being transferred to a jail, he himself was killed by a gunman in the crowd. An investigation took place to find out the truth behind the assassination. After examining a lot of evidence and questioning many people, the investigating committee determined that Lee Oswald must have been the person who shot Kennedy. However, many theories have been made about why he did it. Some people think Oswald could have been a crazy person who thought he could get attention by killing a famous man. Another theory states that he might have been the agent of another government, possibly Russia or Cuba. According to another theory, organized crime (the Mafia) may have been behind the assassination.

Some witnesses report gunshots coming from two different directions. If this is true, Oswald could not have acted alone; there must have been more than one gunman.

Even though the assassination occurred many years ago, people are still fascinated with this event. Books and movies have appeared through the years offering new theories about this mysterious tragedy. Because Oswald was killed before he went to trial, many questions have remained unanswered.

精品译文

1963年11月22日，美国第35任总统约翰·肯尼迪在得克萨斯州的达拉斯市被暗杀，当时他正坐在一辆敞篷车里。很多人认为，他乘坐敞篷车是非常愚蠢的，他应该像如今的各国政要那样，乘坐封闭的防弹汽车才对，这样他也就不会丧命了。

暗杀发生后不久，嫌疑犯李·哈维·奥斯瓦尔德被抓获。两天以后，就在奥斯瓦尔德被送往监狱的路上，他被混藏在人群中的枪手枪杀。随后展开调查，以期查明刺杀背后的真相。在调查了大量的证据并询问了诸多证人之后，调查委员会认为李·奥斯瓦尔德一定就是刺杀肯尼迪总统的真凶。然而，关于他刺杀肯尼迪的原因众说纷纭。有人认为，奥斯瓦尔德可能是个疯子，他是想通过刺杀名人来使自己出名；还有一种理论认为，他可能是别国政府（比如当时的苏联或古巴）的间谍。另外还有理论认为，这次刺杀行动的背后可能另有主谋，比如黑手党。

几名目击者报告称，枪击来自两个方向。如果这种说法正确的话，那么奥斯瓦尔德不可能是单独行动的，当时一定还有另外的枪手。

尽管这次暗杀事件已是多年以前的事了，但人们对它仍旧兴趣盎然。多年来，关于这个神秘的悲剧事件的书籍和电影层出不穷，不断地提出各种新的理论。由于奥斯瓦尔德在前往监狱的路上被枪杀，因此许多问题成了永远的谜。

上文中黑体部分的句子除了前两个句子（should have had, could have been prevented）外，其他的都是表示对过去的推测。比如：

1　The investigating committee determined that Lee Oswald must have been the person who shot Kennedy.

调查委员会认为，李·奥斯瓦尔德一定就是刺杀肯尼迪总统的真凶。

2　Some people think Oswald could have been a crazy person who thought he could get attention by killing a famous man. 有人认为奥斯瓦尔德可能就是个疯子，他是想通过刺杀名人来使自己出名。

3　Another theory states that he might have been the agent of another government, possibly Russia or Cuba.

还有一种理论认为，他（奥斯瓦尔德）可能是别国政府（比如当时的苏联或古巴）的间谍。

4　According to another theory, organized crime (the Mafia) may have been behind the assassination.

另外还有理论认为，这次刺杀行动的背后可能另有主谋，比如黑手党。

5　If this is true, Oswald could not have acted alone; there must have been more than one gunman.

如果这种说法正确的话，那么奥斯瓦尔德不可能是单独行动的，当时一定还有另外的枪手。